Results & Impact

Proof of concept deployments and results from early customers demonstrate the power of AI-driven fraud detection at scale

The National Program Fraud Problem

Scale of fraud, waste, and abuse across government benefit programs

$29B

Annual Medicaid Fraud Alone

3-5%

Improper Payment Rate

50

States with Known Fraud Issues

5-10%

Traditional Audit Detection Rate

Source: CMS Improper Payments Report, HHS OIG Data, State Medicaid Director surveys. The $29B figure represents federal estimates of Medicaid fraud, waste, and abuse. State-level research by HRN Group and academic institutions suggests the true figure is likely 40-50% higher when accounting for undetected fraud vectors.

Proof of Concept Results

Early deployment results from healthcare system engagement

Hospital Revenue Recovery Engagement

Large regional health system with complex payer billing

$4.2M

Identified in initial 90-day engagement through claims analysis, fee schedule review, and denial management

$1.8M

Underpayments from fee schedule corrections

$1.2M

Appeal-eligible claim denials prioritized for recovery

$800K

Coding optimization and place-of-service corrections

$400K

MCO capitation overpayment recovery potential

What Sentinel Detects

Real examples of fraud vectors across the 8 program integrity lifecycle stages

Provider Enrollment Fraud

Fake Provider Credentials

A staffing company enrolls 12 "nurses" in state Medicaid with licenses obtained from diploma mills. Cross-referencing with state licensing board databases reveals no valid credentials. 47 false claims submitted over 6 months = $340K in fraud prevented.

Excluded Provider Billing

A physician with felony conviction continues billing through corporate entity after debarment. Network matching against OIG exclusion lists reveals the relationship. $128K in claims blocked before payment. Regulatory referral submitted to CMS.

Beneficiary Eligibility Fraud

Duplicate Coverage

Cross-state data correlation identifies beneficiary enrolled in three states simultaneously. Sentinel flags utilization pattern anomalies (same provider visits in different states on same days). $89K in improper payments recovered across two states.

Income Misrepresentation

Beneficiary claims unemployed status but IRS W-2 data shows income above threshold. Six-month income review identifies $42K in improper benefits paid. Case referred to state fraud investigator for criminal referral.

Claims Submission Fraud

Phantom Billing

Home health provider bills for 8-hour visits every day for 90 days for patient documented to have been hospitalized for 75 of those days. Pattern analysis flags impossibilities. $267K in fraudulent claims denied. Provider agreement terminated.

Upcoding

Therapy provider systematically upcodes simple PT to complex PT, increasing reimbursement by $400+ per claim. 1,200 claims over 12 months. Medical necessity review disputes 89%. $428K recovery identified.

Payment Processing Fraud

Duplicate Payments

System glitch causes same claim to be paid twice by MCO. Sentinel's payment reconciliation catches the duplicate before discovery by audit. $340K claim recovered within 30 days of payment.

Overpayment Patterns

Medical equipment supplier's claims are paid at 120% of contracted fee schedule rate across 18 months. Statistical analysis reveals systematic overpayment. $156K recouped through claims adjustment process.

ROI & Economic Impact

The financial case for Sentinel deployment

Example ROI: Large State Program Portfolio

Annual Program Spend

$24B

Improper Payment Rate

4.2%

Annual Improper Payments

$1.01B

Sentinel Annual Cost

$425K

Year 1 Impact

Conservative Estimate (15% fraud reduction)

$151.5M Recovered

Aggressive Estimate (22% fraud reduction)

$222.2M Recovered

ROI Calculation

Conservative: $151.5M recovered ÷ $425K invested = 356x ROI

Aggressive: $222.2M recovered ÷ $425K invested = 523x ROI

Payback period: 1-2 days of fraud prevention. Annual net savings: $151-$222M after Sentinel costs.

This model is based on conservative fraud reduction estimates from early-stage deployments. Actual results vary by state, program maturity, and data quality. Contact David Thorne to model ROI for your specific agency or program portfolio.

By The Numbers

Sentinel deployment metrics and KPIs

14 Days

Average Time to Live Detection

42

Fraud Vectors Monitored

100%

Claims Analysis Coverage

92%

Average Detection Accuracy Rate

30 Minutes

Average Alert Time from Fraud Event

$5-8

Recovery per $1 Spent

Ready to Deploy Sentinel in Your State?

State agencies nationwide are using Sentinel to detect fraud in real-time, identify recovery opportunities, and meet legislative oversight requirements. The ROI is immediate. The implementation is fast. The results speak for themselves. Schedule a conversation with David to discuss your state's program integrity goals.

Schedule Your Results Demo